https://www.tiktok.com/@distilledscience/video/7639084343809412383
The Hontovirus is in New Jersey, Texas, Georgia, Virginia, Arizona, California. All of those might be true. But more likely not because there's a key aspect of how this virus is transmitted that makes it simultaneously both scarier and easier to manage. There are 12 U.S. residents currently being monitored by state health agencies for Hantavirus. Seven of them were passengers on the cruise ship who got off before the outbreak was declared and anyone knew any better, probably in St. Helena. The other five were exposed to an infected individual during air travel. But none of those 12 are currently showing any symptoms. and here's why that really matters. We're all still a bit traumatized from COVID, and it's easy to see something like this and think, this is how it starts. But this virus is different. Let's assume the worst-case scenario where all 12 of these people were exposed to enough virus to eventually make them sick. The exposure for seven would have happened before April 24th, the five soon after. After exposure, the virus would slowly start replicating in their bodies. But based on the limited data that we have from previous Andy's virus outbreaks, this could mean anywhere from 4 to 42 days start showing symptoms, the incubation period. But the past data shows that the most contagious time is likely the first one to three days after the symptoms first show, and that the likelihood of transmission is linked to the total viral load in their bodies, the amount of virus present. Those two facts go hand in hand because before symptoms show, it's unlikely that there will be enough viral load in their system for them to transmit it to someone else. So on one hand, this long incubation period makes it really tough for those people who are potentially exposed, because they have to wait a long time before knowing that they're in the clear. Feel for them and hope there but for the rest of us, this gives public health authorities time. Yes, 32 people left the cruise ship on April 24th and encountered who knows how many people. But those encounters were relatively soon after their own potential exposure and highly likely to be way before they would be infectious if they ever get sick. With the most viral strains of COVID, it could be as little as 48 hours between them being exposed and being infectious, which made containment almost impossible. So is there a chance of this Andy's hauntavirus spreading more? Yes. But we are still the scale where tracking and containment is possible, if everyone cooperates. And I for one am thankful that this virus gives us time, but I'll keep you updated.
Additional notes
One very important point to keep in mind here is that while hantaviruses have been around for centuries and the Andes virus has been documented for decades, we still have a fairly low amount of data on the exact dynamics of how it works and spreads and this iteration might have some differences from past ones. One study from Chile twenty years ago tracked a whole bunch of different households where this Andes Virus popped up, likely via transmission from rodent to human, and measured how likely it was for someone living with them to get infected. They found that secondary transmission was was 17.6% among sex partners, versus 1.2% among non–sex partners. If these statistics held for the current outbreak, then there would be almost no chance of this becoming anything to worry about. DOI: 10.1086/516786 However, the 2018 Argentina outbreak has several documented cases of a single person transmitting it to a handful of other people during social events where they were in relatively close proximity to them for a reasonable amount of time. If these types of transmission events occur during the current outbreak, there could be some additional spread, but so far it still seems very manageable to stop the progression. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2009040 #Science #biology #TikTokLearningCampaign #hantavirus #creatorsearchinsights
References
- Chile household Andes virus transmission study discussed in the caption; title not listed in workbook row. DOI: 10.1086/516786. Source: https://doi.org/10.1086/516786
- 2018 Argentina Andes virus outbreak study discussed in the caption; title not listed in workbook row. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2009040. Source: https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2009040